What If?
Scenario EngineRESEARCH TOOL|MARCH 2026
4 feeds
Scenarios
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Strait of Hormuz Disruption
Oil surges to $120/barrel
ImmediateP: Medium
Hormuz Full Closure
Oil spikes above $150/barrel
ImmediateP: Low
Red Sea Shipping Crisis
Freight reroutes via Cape
1-3 monthsP: Medium-High
China Hard Landing
GDP falls below 3%
6-12 monthsP: Low-Medium
US Tariff Escalation
30%+ tariffs on SA exports
3-6 monthsP: Medium
Global Recession
US + EU contract simultaneously
6-12 monthsP: Low
Load Shedding Returns
Stage 4-6 sustained
3-6 monthsP: Low
GNU Collapses
Coalition government fractures
ImmediateP: Low-Medium
Fiscal Blowout
Debt-to-GDP breaches 80%
6-12 monthsP: Low
Middle East Ceasefire
Oil normalises to $65-70
3-6 monthsP: Low-Medium
Reform Acceleration
Eskom unbundling + port/rail reform
12-24 monthsP: Low-Medium
S&P Investment Grade
SA upgraded to BBB-
12-24 monthsP: Low
Fed Cuts Aggressively
US rates fall to 2.5-3%
6-12 monthsP: Medium
Economic Dashboard
Brent Crude
ICE front-month
$101.04
USD/ZAR
Spot rate
R16.97
CPI Inflation
Y/Y (Feb 2026)
3.0%
Petrol 93 ULP
Inland price
R20.70
GDP Growth
2026 forecast
1.5%
Repo Rate
SARB policy rate
6.75%
SA 10Y Bond
R2035 benchmark
9.50%
JSE All Share
FTSE/JSE ALSI
110 572
Bond Repayment
R1.5m over 20yr
R14 725
Gold
Spot price
$4836.00
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Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd is a licensed financial services provider (FSP 39834). This tool is for research and discussion purposes only. Scenario estimates are based on economic models, historical precedent, and current market data from Polygon.io and AlphaVantage. Actual outcomes may differ materially. Not investment advice.