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Sentry

Scenario Intelligence
3 feeds + 21 odds

Scenarios

Tap any scenario below to activate it

Toggle multiple to see their combined impact

Polymarket odds live
Strait of Hormuz Disruption

Oil surges to $120/barrel

Immediate
Low
21%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
Hormuz Full Closure

Oil spikes above $150/barrel

Immediate
Low
21%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
Red Sea Shipping Crisis

Freight reroutes via Cape

1-3 months
Very Low
2%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
Middle East Ceasefire

Oil normalises to $65-70

3-6 months
Elevated
61%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
Iranian Regime Falls

Oil supply normalises, geopolitical reset

3-12 months
Very Low
5%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market
China Hard Landing

GDP falls below 3%

6-12 months
Very Low
7%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
China Invades Taiwan

Global supply chain catastrophe

Immediate
Very Low
7%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market
Japan Debt Crisis

Yen collapse, BOJ loses yield curve control

6-12 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
North Korea Military Escalation

Nuclear test or military provocation triggers crisis

Immediate
Very Low
7%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
India Becomes World's Growth Engine

India GDP accelerates past 8%, attracts massive FDI

12-24 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
South China Sea Confrontation

Naval clash disrupts $5.3 trillion trade route

3-6 months
Very Low
2%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire

European energy normalises, risk-on rally

3-12 months
Moderate
26%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market
EU Political Fragmentation

Far-right gains, EU cohesion weakens

6-12 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
European Energy Crisis

Gas prices spike, industry contracts

3-6 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
European Banking Crisis

Major bank failure triggers contagion

3-6 months
Low
23%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
UK Economic Crisis

Sterling crisis, gilt market turmoil

6-12 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
ECB Aggressive Rate Cuts

ECB cuts to 0%, restarts QE as Europe stagnates

6-12 months
Elevated
56%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
Fed Cuts Aggressively

US rates fall to 2.5-3%

6-12 months
Elevated
56%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market
US Recession by End of 2026

GDP contracts, unemployment rises above 5%

6-12 months
Low
23%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market
Trump NATO Withdrawal

US pulls back, European defence surges

6-12 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
US-China Trade War Escalation

Tariffs surge to 60%+, supply chains fracture

3-6 months
Low
23%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
US Debt Crisis

Bond vigilantes force a fiscal reckoning

6-12 months
Low
23%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
AI Bubble Bursts

Tech correction, Nasdaq drops 20-30%

3-6 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
US Stagflation

Fed trapped: inflation + recession simultaneously

6-12 months
High
76%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
Dedollarization Accelerates

Dollar reserve share falls below 50%, gold repriced

12-24 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
Global Recession

US + EU contract simultaneously

6-12 months
Low
23%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market
Gold Supercycle

Central bank buying drives gold above $6,000

12-24 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
US Tariff Escalation

30%+ tariffs on SA exports

3-6 months
Low
23%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
Load Shedding Returns

Stage 4-6 sustained

3-6 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
GNU Collapses

Coalition government fractures

Immediate
No Polymarket data available for odds
Fiscal Blowout

Debt-to-GDP breaches 80%

6-12 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
Reform Acceleration

Eskom unbundling + port/rail reform

12-24 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
S&P Investment Grade

SA upgraded to BBB-

12-24 months
No Polymarket data available for odds
Trump Escalates on SA

AGOA revoked, secondary sanctions

3-6 months
Low
23%
LowHigh
Polymarket prediction market(proxy)
Macro Terminal
Macro Regime: BASELINE CONDITIONS

All metrics at baseline values. Toggle scenarios in the left panel to model different economic conditions and see how they propagate through the system.

Market Snapshot
S&P 500
5 638
—
NASDAQ 100
17 691
—
JSE
110 572
—
Brent Crude
$118.26
—
Gold
$4836.00
—
USD/ZAR
R16.97
—
US
4.25%
—
Key Risks
  • ▸No scenarios active. Toggle scenarios to identify risks.
Key Opportunities
  • ▸No scenarios active. Toggle scenarios to identify opportunities.
Data Sources
  • ●Polygon.io (US equities, FX, gold, indices)
  • ●AlphaVantage (Brent crude, macro data)
  • ●Polymarket (prediction market odds)
  • ●Fed, BLS, BEA (US rates, labour, GDP)
  • ●SARB, Stats SA (SA macro baselines)
Toggle a scenario to generate the research narrative

Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd is a licensed financial services provider (FSP 39834). This tool is for research and discussion purposes only. Scenario estimates are based on economic models, historical precedent, and current market data from Polygon.io and AlphaVantage. Prediction market odds from Polymarket.com. Actual outcomes may differ materially. Not investment advice.